KEYS
Packers
Run, Run, Run
It’s that time of year. For outdoors teams, the temperatures are falling, game day conditions are worsening and fields are browning and turning to mud or ice. It’s time for running games to make a difference for northern outdoor teams. When the Packers show up in Buffalo on Sunday, they’ll need Eddie Lacy and James Starks to have big performances. With a good Buffalo pass rush primed to get to quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a running game is a must on Sunday. The Packers had their best rushing performance of the season Sunday, gaining 179 yards rushing total against Atlanta. Starks had 75 on 10 carries and Lacy had 73 on 13. Each also had a touchdown.
Attack Orton
With solid receivers in Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods, the Buffalo Bills could have some success against a Packers’ secondary that struggled against Atlanta on Monday. The Packers need to attack quarterback Kyle Orton to take away the passing threat. The Packers have not blitzed much in recent weeks, but that could change. Orton is not Tom Brady or Matt Ryan. With the Bills being an uncommon opponent, Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers should be able to dial up some surprises on Sunday.
Bills
Rush Four
Aaron Rodgers is good. He’s better against the blitz. The key to getting Rodgers unsettled is getting to him with four pass rushers, while the rest of the defense falls back into coverage. That is easier said than done. Most teams do not have the personnel to get it done. Seattle and Detroit were able to do it earlier this season. Buffalo, with it’s tough front four of defensive ends Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes and defensive tackles Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams. Williams leads the team with 12.0 sacks on the season. Dareus has 10.0. Jerry Hughes has 9.5.
Wear Them Down
The Packers defense can be worn down by teams. The Falcons gave a great example of that on Monday. The Packers’ active front seven slows down when it has to defend long drives for four quarters. The Packers assume that if the defense gets a stop or two or gets a turnover, most of the time they’ll win with their offense. That may not be true Sunday. If Buffalo’s defense is able to slow the Packers’ offense, then the Bills have a chance. The offense must wear down the Packers’ defense and get hot in the second half to get the win.
EXTRA POINTS
Must-See Matchup: Offensive vs. Defensive lines
It’ll be strength on strength in the trenches on Sunday. The Packers offensive line has been together all season despite some injuries. It’s solidified, giving Aaron Rodgers plenty of time to pass and the running backs some nice holes to get through in the running game. The Buffalo defensive line may be one of the best in football, accounting for 42 of the team’s NFL-leading 48 sacks. The winner in the trenches will be able to dictate how the game plays out.
Hot Seat: Sam Shields
Cornerback Sam Shields has had a rough two week stretch. First he suffered a concussion against the New England Patriots and had to leave that game. Then against Atlanta, Shields struggled to cover Julio Jones and spend the final portion of the game on the bench while cornerback Devon House took over. Shields, who signed a four-year $39 million contract in the offseason, remains the starter, but the message has been sent. He needs to play better. He’ll get the chance on Sunday against a pair of solid Buffalo receivers in Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods.
Hot Streak: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers has been on a hot streak since taking over as a starter for the Packers. How can we tell, aside from the MVP award, winning records and Lombardi Trophy? Monday was Rodgers’ 100th start for the Packers. His 327 passing yards gave him 27,520 for his career, passing Tony Romo for the most passing yards in 100 starts in NFL history. In those 100 starts, he finished with a record of 63-32, the same record as former Packers quarterback Brett Favre had in his first 100 starts.
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