With an open slot for governor on the ballot in 2026, a large group of Democrats has jumped into the ring.
Francesca Hong, the Democratic socialist and Madison Assembly representative, has narrowly led most polling in a crowded Democratic field, with former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes close behind, though the majority of respondents have said they don’t know who they will support.
Wisconsin Republicans likely have their candidate for governor, the MAGA-aligned Northwoods Rep. Tom Tiffany, but state Democrats must choose from a handful of remaining candidates in the primary election Aug. 11.
The last time Wisconsin Democrats chose a gubernatorial candidate from a packed primary, in 2018, they nominated the moderate Tony Evers, who went on to narrowly defeat the incumbent Scott Walker. Much has changed politically since then.
Can Hong win?
Democratic socialists across the country are on the rise, so it’s a question many in Wisconsin and beyond are asking.
Hong, the foul-mouthed, rhetorical bomb-thrower from Madison, seems to take pleasure in flipping the bird to conservatives, which has delighted some Democrats who say they want more fight from their party.
Her strong early polling has also drawn concern from others who think she is too extreme and thus a risky candidate to run in a swing state.
Some fear she has not done enough to position herself for the more moderate voters outside of Madison she will need to win the state. While other prominent Democratic socialists like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed have abandoned or even denied past support for defunding the police, an incredibly unpopular political position in Wisconsin and nationwide, Hong has not done so when given the opportunity. She has called for not only defunding the police, but also abolishing it altogether.
Can Tiffany win?
The state GOP has rallied around a candidate in Tiffany who is loudly and forcibly pro-Donald Trump — so much that he was one of the few elected Republicans who tried to help him overturn the 2020 election — in a year when the president is very unpopular, in Wisconsin and nationally.
That tight association has given Tiffany a lot of baggage, said Ed Miller, a political science professor emeritus at UW-Stevens Point.
“Besides his challenge to the 2020 election, he has many votes for positions that have hurt farmers, middle class and poor voters,” Miller noted.
Like Hong, experts wonder if Tiffany is too extreme to win statewide.
“Tiffany hitched his wagon to Trump and voted with him down the line, to allow this insane tariff war that’s hurting Wisconsin farmers, to raise healthcare costs and make it harder to access care, to let this dumbass war in the Middle East continue no matter how much more we all pay at the pump,” said Joe Zepecki, a former Democratic strategist who now runs his own consulting firm.
“Tiffany made those choices, which is a little like choosing – on purpose! – to run a marathon with an 800-pound anchor around your neck,” he wrote in an email.
Democrats nominating the wrong candidate could open a path to victory for him, said James Wigderson, a conservative, anti-Trump political writer.
“Barnes and Hong will allow him to do that while they are vulnerable to having their turnout numbers go down because they turn off more moderate voters while scaring (energizing) Tiffany voters,” he wrote in an online message to The Badger Project.
“Clearly, the only Dem candidate Tom Tiffany believes he even has a chance of beating is Fran Hong,” Zepecki added. “The political environment is brutal for Republicans right now — and there is almost nothing to indicate it will get better.”
Party advantages
The Wisconsin GOP does have one thing going for it, said Aaron Weinschenk, a political science professor at UW-Green Bay, in an email.
Unlike the Democrats, they aren’t having “a long, protracted primary battle,” he wrote. “It’s basically been Tiffany for a while now, and he doesn’t have to spend time (or resources) winning a primary. We’re already seeing plenty of ads for him on social media and television (and he’s therefore getting information out there to voters).”
Most of the political wind is blowing at the sails of the Democrats, many experts say.
Midterm elections usually favor the party out of power, Heim said. Juicing the numbers this year could be the Republican president’s severe unpopularity.
“But the Democrats do have some history of occasionally grasping defeat from the jaws of victory,” Heim wrote. “If they, as it now appears, continue to move further left, that may be a formula for Tiffany’s better chances of success this fall. But he also needs to move towards the center and downplay his MAGA side.
“There may be more surprises in the fall than normal, giving him more of a chance, but as of now? I would put my money on the odds that would seem to favor the Democratic candidate for governor.”
The final stretch
Two of the seven Democratic gubernatorial candidates have dropped out so far and endorsed current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez.
That leaves, at least for now, Rodriguez, Barnes, state Sen. Kelda Roys of Madison, former Secretary of the Wisconsin Department of Administration Joel Brennan and Hong.
Rodriguez won a straw poll at the Democratic Party of Wisconsin’s state convention in June, with Hong close behind. That poll of hardcore activists was not predictive the last time it happened in 2018. Roys finished first and the eventual primary winner, while Evers finished third.
Tiffany is not running unopposed in the Republican primary. Andy Manske, an unorthodox, political rookie and a 27-year-old medical services technician from the Milwaukee area, is also on the ballot. He faces long odds to defeat the congressman, who has millions in the bank and the support of the Republican establishment, including the president.
