The government says farmers are expected to grow 13.6 billion bushels of corn this year, about 4 percent less than last year’s record crop.
The estimate released Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture assumes an average per-acre yield of nearly 167 bushels an acre, down from last year’s record 171 bushels.
Soybean farmers are expected to grow nearly 3.85 billion bushels, down 3 percent from last year’s record crop. The soybean per-acre yield is projected at 46 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last year’s record.
The USDA says farmers have started well this growing season with 75 percent of the corn crop planted, ahead of the five-year average of 57 percent.
Soybean farmers have planted nearly one-third of the crop, ahead of the average of 20 percent.
Total year-end supplies of both crops will climb when added to part of last year’s record crop still in the grain bins.
U.S. farmers are expected to harvest soybeans on 83.7 million acres.
Supplies are projected at 4.23 billion bushels, up 3.4 percent from last year’s estimate, with increased beginning stocks more than offsetting lower production, the USDA said.
Soybean exports are projected at 1.76 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels from last year despite record supplies. Competition from record supplies in South America is expected to limit U.S. exports during the first half of the marketing year.
With larger supplies and lower use, U.S. ending stocks this year are projected at 500 million bushels, up 150 million from last year.
The U.S. season-average soybean price this year will decline to $8.25 to $9.75 per bushel compared with $10.05 last year.
Corn production is projected to be down 586 million bushels from the last year’s record with a lower forecast area and yield, the USDA said.
The U.S. corn yield is projected at 166.8 bushels per acre, down 4.2 bushels from the last year’s record, based on a weather adjusted yield trend that assumes normal summer weather.
The 2015 yield outlook has not been raised, despite the rapid pace of planting. For example, Iowa farmers had planted 83 percent of their corn acres through Sunday, a week ahead of last year and the five-year average.
Corn supplies are projected at a record 15.5 billion bushels, up just slightly from last year. U.S. corn use is projected at a record 13.8 billion bushels.
Exports are projected at 1.9 billion bushels, 75 million bushels higher than last year’s projections. More competitive prices and growth in world demand support gains in U.S. exports, but large foreign supplies limit growth in the U.S. share of global trade, the USDA said.
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