It was no coincidence earlier this week that, following the news of Jordy Nelson’s torn anterior cruciate ligament, the Dow Jones did a massive belly flop off the 3-meter board.
Or so you would think, anyway, from some of the fans’ immediate reaction to the injury. In various corners of Green Bay Packers fandom, the sky was falling – plummeting to earth like a Seattle onside kick, with collapse and ruin soon to follow.
You can’t blame them. For several years Nelson has been not only the best receiver on the team but also one of the best in all of football. The loss of his services for the year – on a fluke injury in the preseason game at Pittsburgh that did not involve any contact with a Steelers defender – is a huge blow.
Before sounding the dirge, though, it might be useful to focus on those who are still around, and revisit the “Relax” mantra invoked last year by the one truly indispensable player on the Packers’ offense.
In the unlikely event that anyone needs proof that the Packers will go as far as quarterback Aaron Rodgers takes them, there is the eight-game stretch that he missed with a broken collarbone in 2013. With Rodgers sidelined, the Packers went 2-5-1; with him playing they were 6-2. They won the NFC North Division that year, losing their wild-card game by three points to San Francisco on a last-second field goal.
Nelson’s big-play ability will be sorely missed, but as long as No. 12 is in the huddle, the Packers have a shot. Rodgers’ talent is such that he can make average receivers good, and good receivers great.
By the lights of those who lay the betting lines, Nelson’s injury is almost a moot point. In several wagering parlors the Packers only dropped from favorite to co-favorite, along with Seattle, to win the Super Bowl.
Lost in the discussion of adjusted Super Bowl expectations, shortened preseason, possible free agent signings and “next man up” is any mention of the defense. The Packers’ five-time Pro Bowl linebacker, Clay Matthews Jr., has been nursing a sore knee and elbow that have kept him out of action for the preseason games. He has averaged more than 10 sacks per season. As the team’s spiritual leader and one of the top defensive players in the league, his continued availability will be crucial.
Apart from their 43-37 shootout win over Atlanta, the Packers last season did not allow more than 21 points in any game after their bye week – until the overtime loss to the Seahawks in the NFC title game. In that debacle, it was the special teams’ having a not so special day that undid the Packers.
Randall Cobb caught 91 balls last year, including 12 touchdowns; Nelson had 98 receptions with 13 touchdowns. Cobb was targeted 127 times compared to the 151 balls thrown Nelson’s way. Cobb might not be as polished of a route-runner as Nelson; not yet, anyway. But if the question is whether he can jump on this opportunity and emerge this season as a big star in his own right, with Rodgers throwing the ball to him the answer is unequivocally yes.
If he stays healthy, of course. And as always, there’s the rub. Injuries are so ingrained in the NFL season calculus that there is no telling who’s going to be standing and who’s hobbling into the trainer’s room from one week to the next. Nelson’s injury was one of those random roadblocks – like bad calls and weird bounces – that every team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations must circumvent.
For the time being, the Packers still have a strong defense, they still have Eddie Lacy leading a good running game, they still have a corps of solid receivers and they still have the best quarterback in the league. Meaning that, as regrettable as Nelson’s injury is, there are still a couple of dozen teams in the NFL that wished they had the Packers’ problems.
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