A month before the 2013 season, Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson was in trouble. He needed someone to protect his quarterback’s blind side.
Bryan Bulaga, a former first-round pick, was poised to safeguard Aaron Rodgers. Bulaga tore his ACL during the Packers’ Family Night scrimmage, however. One week into training camp, his season was done.
In a scramble, Thompson turned to David Bakhtiari. Three months earlier, Bakhtiari was a fourth-round draft prospect from Colorado. Before the draft, analysts predicted he eventually would move inside to guard.
Now he was an MVP quarterback’s most important blocker.
Franchise left tackles never are expected to be found in the fourth round, but when Bulaga returned last fall, Bakhtiari stayed at left tackle and Bulaga returned to the right side. Bakhtiari has started all 32 games in his career, 35 counting playoffs.
It’s the kind of draft magic Thompson routinely conjures. Need a running back? Trade back into the second round, take Eddie Lacy. Out of options at inside linebacker? Insert Sam Barrington, a former seventh-rounder.
Since 2005, Thompson has built the Packers’ infrastructure through the NFL draft. He’s gained respect across the league, former Cleveland Browns general manager Phil Savage said, for his ability to find gems who competitors overlook.
“I think of all 32 teams,” Savage said, “they’re the ones that are the most devoted to the NFL draft.”
A request to speak with Thompson about his draft production was met with swift skepticism from a team spokesman, then declined. Thompson and Packers coach Mike McCarthy regard draft data as internal, strategic information, the spokesman said.
An imprint of Thompson’s draft success is available. It just takes some digging. In more than 50 research hours, the Green Bay Press-Gazette gauged 32 draft data categories for all 32 NFL teams. The data covers total games and starts from drafted players, snap counts from each of their first four seasons, retention of draft picks, their transition to starting roles and much more.
The study includes every drafted player since 2005, when Thompson opened his tenure by selecting Rodgers. It reveals Thompson as the NFL’s standard for building a roster through the draft, helping the Packers maintain success on the field and a sturdy salary cap structure.
The Draft
Each year, the NFL draft promises 32 teams the closest thing possible to an equal playing field.
Players don’t get to choose which NFL city they’ll call home; they’re picked. Teams don’t stress over cap space; each player is handed a slotted salary. There is no negotiating. On the clock, a general manager simply must choose which player fits his team best.
“After the CBA change,” Savage said, “the draft is an attractive option for every team because you can draft good players at lower prices.”
Thompson has consistently maximized the draft’s impact.
He’s a volume shooter, ruthlessly hoarding an arsenal of picks. Thompson made 25 draft-day trades over the past decade, at least one every year except 2014. Those trades netted 10 extra picks, significant considering a draft has seven rounds.
Thompson doesn’t necessarily show more patience with his drafted players compared to the rest of the league, but his extra picks give him more chances to succeed. Thompson has drafted 104 players since 2005, more than any team. The Packers lead the NFL with 1,795 starts and 3,267 games played from drafted players.
They have 106 more games played than any NFL team, and 85 more starts than any NFC team.
“Stellar,” was how longtime NFL executive Bill Polian described Thompson’s draft record. “He’s outstanding, and he’s outstanding not only in terms of judging talent, but of managing the draft. Those are two completely different things.”
Even the best talent evaluators fail almost as often as they succeed. It’s inevitable to miss on draft picks, Polian said. Teams limit the damage with good draft management, ensuring they get production from their picks.
“Draft management is something that people simply do not focus on,” Polian said. “Nobody understands it — nobody understands it exists — because all we talk about in the media is, ‘This guy is an absolute first-rounder, and this guy belongs in the second round, and this guy is a third-rounder, and you can’t possibly draft Russell Wilson any higher than this round, and blah, blah, blah.’ That’s not true at all.”
Polian and former Packers GM Ron Wolf will become the first executives inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame next month. In more than three decades, Polian built the Super Bowl-champion Indianapolis Colts and four-time AFC-champion Buffalo Bills. Over time, he said, his front office developed measurements to track draft production.
The most successful NFL teams get significant contributions from roughly 58 percent of drafted players, Polian said. Struggling teams have a “hit rate” of 50 percent or below.
Developing players
With long NFL careers being the exception, rosters are a revolving door. Free agency and the salary cap keep players coming and going. A general manager is tasked with retaining the right players and growing them in the system.
“You want to draft a guy, develop a guy and have that guy replace the declining vet,” Pittsburgh Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said . “You’re probably not going to replace the vet as long as he’s still performing at a functional level, but if he’s starting to decline, you want to keep the cycle working where you’ve got the replacements right there.”
Among teams with the 10 best winning percentages since 2005, six rank in the top 10 of drafted players retained four full seasons. The six teams retaining the fewest draftees rank among the league’s 10 worst winning percentages.
In the past decade, 38 percent of the league’s drafted players stayed with their original team four seasons. Only two teams — the New York Giants and San Diego Chargers — retained more than half their draft picks that long.
In seven years of applicable data — between 2005 and 2011 — the Packers kept 32 drafted players four seasons (42.1 percent), second to the Tennessee Titans (35 players). They have 739 games played by drafted players after their first four seasons, second to the San Francisco 49ers (755).
Thompson is notorious for maintaining a young roster, but not too young. The Packers got 18,408 fourth-year snaps from drafted players, according to Pro Football Focus. Only the Titans (19,110) got more.
Which means the Packers not only have more players experienced in pro football, but also specialized in their system.
Wolf, more than Thompson, had a reputation for dipping into free agency.
The Packers made waves around the league when Wolf signed defensive end Reggie White in 1993. Wolf also added center Frank Winters, defensive end Sean Jones and return specialist/Super Bowl XXXI MVP Desmond Howard through free agency, and traded a first-round pick for quarterback Brett Favre.
Thompson has made a free-agency splash or two. He signed cornerback Charles Woodson in 2006, and outside linebacker Julius Peppers last offseason, but Wolf was more active on the open market. That doesn’t mean he disagrees with Thompson’s extreme draft approach.
Continuity, stability
Savage and Thompson became general managers the same year, but they entered very different situations. Starting with Wolf in 1992, the Packers have been a model of continuity. They’ve had three general managers in the past 23 years. In the same time, the Browns have had nine.
Thompson had a better opportunity to succeed, Savage said, because the pieces he inherited fit the same football philosophy. Savage did not have that luxury. When he took over the Browns, Savage said, personnel was fragmented into the remnants of old systems.
“That’s probably the biggest issue for the Browns over the years,” he said. “There’s never a stick-to-itiveness for any regime longer than a few years.”
