Packers Keys to the Game (vs. Vikings)

By: 
Bill Huber
Correspondent

The Green Bay Packers (7-8) will host the Minnesota Vikings (12-3) on noon Sunday at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. CBS will televise the game.

History

In a series that dates to 1961, the Packers lead 64-57-3. Green Bay won nine of the first 10 matchups. While Packers coach Matt LaFleur has had a lot of success against the NFC North, he’s just 4-3 against Minnesota. The Vikings won 23-7 in week one at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Coaches

Green Bay — Matt LaFleur (fourth season, 46-18). Vikings – Kevin O’Connell (first season, 12-3).

When the Packers have the ball

Green Bay’s offense has made some slow but steady progress. Over its last five games, the Packers are ninth in scoring. They scored 26 points against Miami on Sunday, a rather underwhelming performance considering the incredible field position delivered by the defense and special teams.

Minnesota’s defense is terrible. The Vikings are 28th in points allowed with 24.9 per game. They are good on third down (ninth) and decent in the red zone (15th) but 31st in total defense (402.3 yards per game) and yards allowed per passing attempt (7.5).

Can Aaron Rodgers and an inconsistent passing attack take advantage? The health of rookie receiver Christian Watson (hip) to catch those passes and right tackle Yosh Nijman (shoulder) to provide protection will be vital.

The Vikings operate out of a 3-4 scheme. The defensive line consists of Harrison Phillips, James Lynch and Dalvin Tomlinson. It’s an underrated group. Tomlinson is the big name and Phillips was a key offseason addition.

The run defense provided by that trio is the key to everything. If they can stop the run, then outside linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter can attack the quarterback.

Smith, whom the Packers released this past offseason, was picked for the Pro Bowl last week. He has 10 sacks and 24 quarterback hits and, according to Pro Football Focus, ranks third in the NFL with 78 pressures. He had one sack against Green Bay in week one.

The Vikings are 7-1 when Smith gets at least a ½ sack. Hunter has 10½ sacks and 20 quarterback hits.

The prospect of Smith and Hunter going against Zach Tom (if David Bakhtiari isn’t back from his appendectomy) and Royce Newman (in place of Nijman) has to be at the forefront of LaFleur’s game-planning. Tom has played well, but Newman really struggled against the Dolphins.

Longtime standout Eric Kendricks and Jordan Hicks are the linebackers. Both players have more than 120 tackles. Hicks has three sacks and 10 passes defensed; Kendricks has eight tackles for losses.

The secondary is where there are all sorts of problems. The Vikings shook up the group a bit recently with limited impact last week against the Giants. Patrick Peterson and Duke Shelley are the corners, former Packers player Chandon Sullivan mans the slot, and Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum are the safeties.

The 32-year-old Peterson, an All-Pro during his days with the Cardinals, has allowed only a 59.4% catch rate, according to PFF. He has four interceptions and a team-high 14 passes defensed.

Shelley was on the bench for most of the season before being thrust into a prime role the last five weeks. He’s allowed only a 56.3% catch rate, a huge upgrade over the benched Cameron Dantzler’s 79.2%.

Smith might not be the all-around menace of yesteryear but leads the team with five interceptions and is third with 80 tackles. Bynum has two picks.

When the Vikings have the ball

Coming off a season-saving second half at Miami in which they intercepted three passes and pitched a shutout, the Packers will have to contend with one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Minnesota is seventh with 25.2 points per game. The Vikings are only 18th in yards per play, 25th in rushing per carry and 18th in passing per attempt. They’re only 15th on third down and 19th in pass protection. That’s a lot of mediocrity. But when Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson get rolling, look out.

The 34-year-old Cousins has thrown for 4,117 yards with 27 touchdowns. After three consecutive seasons with 100 passer ratings, he’s at only 93.3 this year. But he is hot with 425 yards and two touchdowns in a loss to Detroit, 460 yards and four touchdowns in the historic comeback over Indianapolis and 299 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win vs. the Giants.

The Packers allowed more than 100 yards apiece to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at Miami. This week, the challenge is the indomitable Jefferson, sidekicks Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn, and tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Jefferson leads the NFL with 123 receptions for 1,756 yards. In three seasons, he has 4,772 receiving yards. He is the total package, and as hot as they come with 35 receptions for 379 yards and two scores the last three games. In week one against Green Bay, he caught nine passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns.

Maybe defensive coordinator Joe Barry will do more to put Jaire Alexander on Jefferson. But that doesn’t take into account the veteran Thielen (67 receptions, 692 yards, five touchdowns) or the underrated Osborn, who caught 10 passes for 157 yards and a touchdown in the comeback vs. Indy.

Hockenson was acquired from the Lions at the trade deadline. Against the Giants on Saturday, he caught 13 passes for 109 yards and two scores.

And if that’s not enough, Dalvin Cook is sixth in the NFL with 1,109 rushing yards. Cook had 226 total yards and four touchdowns as the Vikings won at Lambeau in 2020 but just 13 total yards on 12 touches as Green Bay rolled at Lambeau last year.

The offensive line consists of left tackle Christian Darrisaw, left guard Ezra Cleveland, center Austin Scholottman, right guard Ed Ingram and right tackle Brian O’Neill. Darrisaw and O’Neill are high-quality bookends.

Ingram has struggled as a rookie. Scholottman has started the last three games for Garrett Bradbury (back). Kenny Clark needs a big game against Minnesota’s interior trio.

Special teams

In Football Outsiders’ rankings from before week 16, Green Bay was 27th and Minnesota was 30th.

The game could feature two of the NFL’s premier kickoff returners. Minnesota’s Kene Nwangwu is averaging 26 yards per runback this season and has three touchdowns in two seasons. Green Bay’s Keisean Nixon leads the NFL with a 27.5-yard average. He had a 93-yarder vs. Miami, his league-leading fourth of 50-plus yards, but missed the second half with a groin injury.

Vikings kicker Greg Joseph is 19-of-19 on field goals from inside of 50 yards but only 3-of-8 from distance. But he’s got a huge leg, as evidenced by his 61-yarder that beat the Giants. Punter Randy Wright has a 42.8-yard net average and a sensational 32 punts inside the 20 vs. only one touchback.

Receiver Jalen Reagor has only a 6.8-yard average on punt returns but had a 73-yard touchdown at Lambeau with the Eagles in 2020.