Packers Keys to the Game (at 49ers)

By: 
Bill Huber
Correspondent

The Green Bay Packers (1-1) travel to face the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) at 7:20 p.m. on Sept. 26 at Levi’s Stadium. NBC will televise the game.

History

The Packers are 33-28-1 in regular season matchups, and the teams split their eight playoff encounters. The teams last met on Nov. 5, 2020 – a highly anticipated showdown after the 49ers crushed the Packers in the 2019 regular season and again in the 2019 NFC Championship Game. Instead, with the 49ers decimated by injuries and COVID, Green Bay rolled to a 34-17 victory. It wasn’t even that close; Green Bay led 34-3 late in the fourth quarter before a couple lipstick-on-the-pig touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers was 25-of-31 passing for 305 yards, four touchdowns and a 147.2 passer rating.

Coaches

Green Bay – Matt LaFleur, 27-7, third season. San Francisco — Kyle Shanahan, 31-35, fifth season.

When the Packers have the ball

After a dismal performance vs. New Orleans in week one in which the Packers scored a league-worst three points, the offense came to life in Monday’s 34-17 victory over the Detroit Lions. Rodgers threw four touchdown passes vs. zero interceptions, Aaron Jones scored four touchdowns and Davante Adams caught eight passes for 121 yards.

“Obviously, it starts with getting the ball to our playmakers, which are 33 and 17,” Rodgers said of Jones and Adams. “That’s where it all starts, then finding ways to let our great role players make plays.”

Of course, first-year 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans will be well aware of Green Bay’s offensive formula and will plan accordingly. This will be a much, much bigger test than facing the Lions’ retooled defense. The 49ers have a star-studded unit that has been mostly dominant to start the season.

Statistically, it’s not a great unit. Through the way-too-early prism of two games, San Francisco is 10th with 22 points allowed per game, 19th in total defense (379.0 yards), 28th in yards per rushing attempt (5.04), eighth in yards per passing attempt (6.06), sixth on third down (33.3 percent conversions) and 25th in the red zone (80.0 percent touchdowns). However, a lot of that is skewed by Detroit’s week one comeback.

The 49ers took the foot off the gas a bit after taking a 38-10 lead midway through the third quarter. Perhaps a more accurate indicator is the first half of that game (164 yards allowed, 10 points, one defensive touchdown) and Sunday’s 17-11 victory at Philadelphia in which it took the Eagles 56 minutes to find the end zone.

Ryans runs a 4-3 defense that is fueled by a superb front. Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead are an elite tandem on the edges, and D.J. Jones and Javon Kinlaw are the tackles. Bosa (second pick in 2019), Armstead (17th pick in 2015) and Kinlaw (14th pick in 2020) aren’t just former first-round picks but top-20 picks. Dee Ford (23rd pick in 2014) comes off the bench to rush the passer.

They will provide a massive test for Green Bay’s retooled offensive line, which has been pretty good the first two weeks but will face a much stiffer challenge. Bosa, in particular, is off to a dominant start with three sacks. He rushes mostly from the defense’s right side, meaning the first real challenge for left tackle Elgton Jenkins.

Fred Warner is one of the best middle linebackers in the business. He has at least 118 tackles and six passes defensed in each of his first three seasons. He’s flanked by Marcell Harris and Azeez Al-Shaair. Harris replaced Dre Greenlaw in the lineup; Greenlaw is on injured reserve with a groin injury sustained on his pick-six at Detroit. It’s a big loss, though it hardly mattered against the Eagles.

Rodgers will look at the Niners’ cornerbacks and see opportunities. On paper, the outside starters are Jason Verrett and Emmanuel Moseley and the slot is K’Waun Williams. However, the injury-prone Verrett suffered a torn ACL in week one and Moseley missed the first two games with a knee injury (though Shanahan is hopeful he’ll make his season debut vs. Green Bay).

That left former All-Pro Josh Norman and fifth-round rookie Deommodore Lenoir as the corners with Williams in the slot against Philadelphia. That the Niners went with the 33-year-old Norman, who is long past his days as a premier cover man, over the 33-year-old Richard Sherman speaks volumes about where Sherman’s at at this stage of his career.

The safeties are the quality duo of Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward.

When the 49ers have the ball

Through six quarters, the Packers’ defense had given up nine scores in 12 possessions. It’s hard to imagine Joe Barry’s tenure as coordinator starting much worse. But, Green Bay played much better in the second half, pitching a shutout while forcing two turnovers. Of course, that comes with the obvious asterisk of that came against Detroit, which might have the worst receiver corps in the NFL.

“I think we did make some necessary adjustments at halftime,” LaFleur said. “One of the things I talked to Joe about was either play coverage or we have to pressure because, when we were doing our four-man rushes and playing man coverages behind it, we weren’t getting to the quarterback. We needed to affect the quarterback much more.”

It will be a bigger challenge against the 49ers. They are eighth with 29 points per game, sixth in yards per passing attempt (8.93), 24th in yards per rushing attempt (3.76), No. 17 on third down (39.1 percent) and tied for No. 1 with a perfect mark in the red zone.

Before this year’s draft, the 49ers traded their 2021, 2022 and 2023 first-round draft picks, as well as an additional third-rounder, to move up from No. 12 to No. 3. At that spot, they selected quarterback Trey Lance. Nonetheless, expect Jimmy Garoppolo to make his third consecutive start. He’s played well, with a 70.9 percent completion rate, two touchdowns vs. zero interceptions, and a 111.4 passer rating.

Garoppolo’s got two elite targets with receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle. Samuel has 15 receptions for a league-leading 282 yards and one touchdown. Presumably, Barry will put All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander on Samuel early and often to force Garoppolo to look elsewhere.

Kittle isn’t a bad second option. In fact, he’s probably the best tight end in football because he changes games as a receiver and a blocker. In 2018 and 2019, Kittle posted back-to-back seasons of 88 receptions for 1,377 yards and 85 receptions for 1,053 yards. He probably would have been in that range again in 2020 but missed half the season with a foot injury. He’s caught eight passes for 95 yards to start this season. In the 2019 regular season game, Kittle caught six passes for 129 yards and a touchdown.

Just like the Niners will want to force Rodgers to throw it to someone other than Adams, the Packers will want to force Garoppolo to look at his other receivers. Trent Sherfield, Mohamed Sanu and Brandon Aiyuk have combined for merely five receptions for 49 yards.

San Francisco’s running back corps is a M*A*S*H unit. Starter Raheem Mostert suffered a season-ending injury in week one. In week two, Elijah Mitchell, JaMycal Hasty and rookie Trey Sermon all dropped out with injuries, though Mitchell at least returned following a shoulder injury.

It might not matter because the offensive line is filled with studs. Left tackle Trent Williams, left guard Laken Tomlinson, center Alex Mack, right guard Daniel Brunskill and right tackle Mike McGlinchey might rival the Saints’ unit as the best line in the NFL. So long as the Packers’ David Bakhtiari is out of action, Williams might be the top left tackle in the game. The Niners are No. 1 in the league in sack percentage allowed.

Special teams

Last year, the 49ers finished 27th and the Packers 29th in Rick Gosselin’s annual special-teams rankings for SI.com. Both units, however, appear to be on the upswing.

With punter Mitch Wishnowsky and ageless kicker Robbie Gould, the Niners have a pair of proven legs. Five of Wishnowsky’s seven punts have pinned the opponent inside the 20. The 38-year-old Gould is sixth in NFL history in field-goal accuracy, though he’s at less than 80 percent the last two-plus seasons.

Aiyuk handles punt returns (10-yard average on two returns) and cornerback Ambry Thomas returns kickoffs (17.5-yard average on four tries). Their coverage units have been excellent.

For Green Bay, new punter Corey Bojorquez is off to an excellent start. Only one of his seven punts have been returned. The rookie returners have each contributed one strong runback.

Kylin Hill had a 41-yard kickoff return against Detroit and Amari Rodgers had a 17-yard punt return against the Saints. Those beat last year’s best returns.