Packers Keys to the Game (vs. Lions)

By: 
Bill Huber
Correspondent

The Green Bay Packers (8-8) will host the Detroit Lions (8-8) at 7:20 p.m. Sunday at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. NBC will televise the game.

History

In a series that dates to 1930 when the Lions were the Portsmouth Spartans, the Packers lead 105-74-1. That includes a pair of wins in the playoffs. Coach Matt LaFleur won his first five games against Detroit but lost the last two.

The first was last year’s meaningless finale at Ford Field, when he sat his starters after the first half. The second was in week nine of this season at Ford Field, when the Lions intercepted Aaron Rodgers three times and won 15-9.

Coaches

Green Bay — Matt LaFleur (fourth season, 47-18). Lions — Dan Campbell (second season, 11-21; Campbell also went 5-7 as Miami’s interim coach in 2015).

When the Packers have the ball

Even though it dominated the matchup in week nine, Detroit’s defense is one of the worst in the league. The Lions are 29th with 25.7 points allowed per game.

They are awful in every way, ranking 32nd in total defense (398.7 per game), 32nd in yards per play (6.26), 30th in rushing per play (5.32) and 31st in passing per play (7.49). They’re also 30th on third down and 27th in the red zone.

Detroit operates out of a 3-4 alignment. The front consists of Isaiah Buggs, Alim McNeill and John Cominsky.

McNeill is a tough customer against the run, Cominsky has four sacks and is second on the team with 11 quarterback hits and Buggs is fourth on the team with 10 quarterback hits.

If the Packers can’t run the ball, the real danger will be the rookie duo of Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston as the outside linebackers. Hutchinson, the second overall draft pick, is second on the team with 7½ sacks, first with 17 quarterback hits and tied for first with three interceptions. He had one of those picks in the first matchup.

Houston, a sixth-round pick, made his debut in week 12 and has a team-high eight sacks in six games. At 224 pounds, his speed has been hard to handle.

Against Chicago last week, rookies Houston (three sacks), Josh Paschal (two sacks) and Hutchinson (½ sack, interception) combined for 5½ of the team’s seven sacks.

“We got a lot of talented rookies on the team,” Hutchinson said after the game. “It’s a good foundation for us, too. It’s very exciting being out there and being a part of games like that.”

Alex Anzalone and rookie Malcolm Rodriguez are the inside linebackers. Anzalone leads the team with 117 tackles.

Jeff Okudah and Jerry Jacobs are the corners and veteran Will Harris mans the slot. They have one interception apiece.

Jacobs, an undrafted free agent in 2021, has started the last seven games and leads the team with eight passes defensed. He’s allowed a catch rate of only 55.8%, according to Pro Football Focus. Okudah, the fourth overall pick in 2020, has seven passes defensed and has allowed a catch rate of 61.5%.

DeShon Elliott and another rookie, Kerby Joseph, are the safeties. Joseph was the star of the last game with two interceptions, three passes defensed and a questionable hit on Romeo Doubs that sidelined the Packers rookie for four games. He’s got three picks and a team-high two forced fumbles. Elliott is second on the team with 90 tackles.

When the Lions have the ball

Detroit is in the playoff chase because of a high-powered offense that ranks fourth with 27.1 points per game. The Lions are third in total offense (383.6 per game) and fourth in the red zone (68.3% touchdowns).

Three numbers really stand out about the Jared Goff-led passing game, with Detroit ranking fifth in yards per attempt (7.33), second in interception percentage (1.26) and third in sack percentage (4.15). In other words, the Lions create a lot of big plays while not making a lot of big mistakes.

In a division highlighted by Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins, it is Goff who rules the roost with a 100.7 passer rating (seventh), 4,214 yards (sixth) and 29 touchdowns (fourth). He’s gone 290 consecutive attempts without throwing an interception.

“You can just tell it’s like he’s in this mode right now where you feel like anytime you dial up a pass, he’s going to find somebody,” Campbell said.

He’s got plenty of weapons, led by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is up to 100 receptions for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns.

“This guy, he is a tough competitor. He is a dog,” LaFleur said. “His ability to win his one-on-ones, to make tough catches, to get YAC, he’s a scrappy dude. I think he’s got a great rapport with Jared and they’ve made a lot of plays together. You look at the supporting cast around him, it’s getting better and better. I think this is a really complete offense.”

The Packers kept him in check in the first meeting (four catches, 55 yards) but, as LaFleur said, the Lions’ receiver corps is much better with the return of D.J. Chark (27 receptions, 488 yards, 18.1 average and three touchdowns in 10 games) and the debut of first-round pick Jameson Williams (his lone catch was a 41-yard touchdown). Chark and Williams are big-play threats. Chark has five catches of 28-plus yards in his last five games.

Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift lead a productive backfield. Williams, the popular former Packers backup, has 994 rushing yards and an NFL-high 15 rushing touchdowns.

Williams is exactly the same player he was in Green Bay — nothing flashy, just a hard-charging runner who maximizes every attempt. Swift brings the flashiness. He’s got 517 yards and a 5.6-yard average – 1.6 yards better than Williams – and 41 receptions.

LaFleur called the Lions’ offensive line one of the best in the NFL. It consists of left tackle Taylor Decker, left guard Jonah Jackson, center Frank Ragnow, right guard Evan Brown and right tackle Penei Sewell.

Sewell, last year’s first-round pick, is a dominant force and has the makings to be a foundational piece. Decker is a quality starter but the most vulnerable of the quintet; Preston Smith will need a big game.

Special teams

In Football Outsiders’ rankings, Green Bay has soared to 17th — it was 30th a few weeks ago — while Detroit is eighth.

Both of Detroit’s returners are dangerous. Running back Justin Jackson is averaging 26.9 yards per kickoff return. His long is only 42 yards, meaning he’s got a bunch of returns in that 25- to 30-yard range to provide consistently good field position.

Receiver Kalif Raymond handles punts. Pint-sized but rocket-fast, he’s got a 13.2-yard average and one touchdown.

Kicker Michael Badgley is 18-of-21 on field goals with a long of 53 yards. Punter Jack Fox is fourth in average (48.7 yards) and 12th in net (41.7), with opponents averaging 10.6 yards per return.

For Green Bay, Keisean Nixon leads the NFL with a 30.0-yard average on kickoff returns. He’s got five returns of 50-plus yards; nobody else has more than two. Detroit’s coverage unit ranks 14th with 22.2 yards allowed per runback.