Keys to the Game (Jan. 3)

By: 
Bill Huber
Correspondent

The Green Bay Packers (12-3) travel to face the Chicago Bears (8-7) at 3:25 p.m., Jan. 3 at Soldier Field. FOX televises the game.

Coaches

Green Bay — Matt LaFleur, second season (25-6). Chicago — Matt Nagy, third season (28-19).

History

The Packers lead the series 100-95-6, including a 41-25 triumph on Nov. 29. The Packers are 9-1 in their last 10 trips to Soldier Field, with Chicago’s lone win coming in 2018.

When the Packers have the ball

Not unlike so many matchups over the last decade, this will be a battle between an excellent offense and a strong defense. The Packers are No. 1 in the NFL with 31.6 points per game. Chicago, meanwhile, is No. 10 with 22.3 points allowed per game. Going even deeper, the Packers are No. 1 in the red zone and No. 2 on third down while Chicago is No. 6 on third down and No. 2 in the red zone.

Those situational areas have been key for the Bears. While they are No. 8 in yards allowed per play, including No. 9 in yards per rushing attempt and No. 12 in yards per passing attempt, they’re right around the middle of the pack in terms of sacks and takeaways. They didn’t register a single sack or quarterback hit in the first matchup.

Chicago had one Pro Bowler, outside linebacker Khalil Mack, and probably should have had another with second-year inside linebacker Roquan Smith.

Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols and Brent Urban form the defensive front. Hicks, the star of the group, missed the first matchup due to injury. In 14 games, he’s got 3.5 sacks and a team-leading 19 quarterback hits. Nichols has been a surprise standout with five sacks, 13 quarterback hits and three forced fumbles.

Mack and Robert Quinn are the outside linebackers. Mack, the 2016 Defensive Player of the Year, has eight sacks on the season. In the first matchup, he had only three assisted tackles. In free agency, the Bears handed a five-year, $70 million contract to Quinn, who had a one-year, blast-from-the-past season last year with Dallas. That has not been money well spent. He’s got two sacks and just four quarterback hits.

Smith, with a stat-book stuffing 136 tackles, four sacks, 17 tackles for losses and seven passes defensed, and Danny Trevathan (104 tackles) are the inside linebackers. Smith is second in the NFL in tackles for losses. That’s rare production considering that stat usually is dominated by pass rushers. He had two interceptions against Jacksonville.

“You have a good mix of a front that can stop the run and control the line of scrimmage with guys like Akiem and then the linebackers are so talented,” Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said before the first matchup. “Roquan, one of the fastest linebackers in the league for sure and really becoming more savvy with the experience he’s gotten. Danny Trevathan, one of the hardest hitters I think, bar none. I don’t know many guys who hit like that. He’s got probably one of the hardest heads in the league.”

Can the Bears stop Rodgers? The injury report this week will be critical. In last week’s victory over Jacksonville, the Bears were without touted rookie cornerback Jaylon Johnson (shoulder) and nickel Buster Skrine (concussion). Johnson leads the team with 15 passes defensed. Veteran Kyle Fuller has one interception and eight passes defensed. Big-play Eddie Jackson and veteran Tashaun Gipson are the safeties. Jackson has six defensive touchdowns in three seasons. While he does not have an interception this year, he has forced three fumbles.

Starting with Green Bay’s win in week 13, the Bears have given up 41, 34, seven and 27 points the last four games.

When the Bears have the ball

Chicago, which is 18th in scoring but gotten hot, will face a Green Bay defense coming off a superb performance against Tennessee. That makes this a battle between two ascending groups.

After a benching and injury, quarterback Mitchell Trubisky made his first start in two months against Green Bay on Nov. 29. He threw two interceptions in that game but has been on a roll. The past four games, he has thrown seven touchdowns vs. two interceptions, completed about 72 percent of his passes and led the Bears to 30-plus points in all four games. The Bears hadn’t done that since 1955.

Running back David Montgomery has found his groove, too. Starting with the Green Bay game, he’s topped 100 rushing yards in three of the past five weeks. In those games, he’s averaged 106 rushing yards, 138 total yards and scored seven touchdowns. He’s tough to tackle and has speed once he gets into the clear, as he showed with his 57-yarder against the Packers. The Packers have played good run defense since that carry; their only blemish vs. the Titans’ powerhouse rushing attack was a 45-yard touchdown run by quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

Trubisky has weapons on the perimeter. Allen Robinson, who scored twice in the first matchup, has 100 receptions for 1,213 yards. He’s topped 100 receiving yards two of the past three weeks. Rookie Darnell Mooney, who has deep speed, and Anthony Miller are solid complementary pieces. Former Packers tight end Jimmy Graham scored two touchdowns vs. Jacksonville and has 48 receptions for 451 yards and eight scores on the season. He had only five touchdowns in two seasons in Green Bay.

Left tackle Charles Leno, left guard Cody Whitehair, center Sam Mustipher, right guard Alex Bars and right tackle Germain Ifedi make up the offensive line. Their play, while not great, has made the late-season improvement possible.

Special teams

A questionable offside penalty eliminated the latest sin against Green Bay’s special teams, a blocked field goal. Shawn Mennenga’s shaky units will be put to the test by Chicago.

The big challenge will be Pro Bowl returner Cordarrelle Patterson. He’s averaging 29.2 yards per kickoff return and has one touchdown. Incredibly given Green Bay’s struggles, one of his worst performances came in the first matchup, when he averaged 20.5 yards on two opportunities.

Cairo Santos has cured Chicago’s long-standing kicking problems. He’s 27-of-29 on the field goals, including 16-of-16 from inside of 40 yards. He’s made 22 in a row, the second-longest streak in team history.

Punter Pat O’Donnell is averaging 45.6 yards per punt but his net is only 39.4. New returner Packers Tavon Austin hasn’t really had a chance but that might happen this week.