Keys to the Game (Divisional round)

By: 
Bill Huber
Correspondent

The Green Bay Packers (13-3) host the Los Angeles Rams (11-6) at 3:35 p.m., Jan. 16 at Lambeau Field. FOX televises the game.

Coaches

Green Bay — Matt LaFleur, second season (26-6, 1-1 in playoffs). Los Angeles — Sean McVay, fourth season (43-21, 3-2 in playoffs).

History

Rams lead 47-46-2, including a split of two playoff games. The Rams won the last regular-season matchup, 29-27 in Los Angeles in 2018, and the last playoff matchup, 45-17, in St. Louis during the 2001 postseason.

When the Packers have the ball

This is the heavyweight battle. In one corner, it’s Green Bay’s offense, which led the NFL in scoring. In the other corner, it’s Los Angeles’ defense, which led the NFL in points allowed and smothered Seattle’s high-flying offense in Saturday’s playoff win.

The Packers dominated where it mattered most, ranking second on third down and first in the red zone. On a per-play basis, Green Bay was second in passing, seventh in rushing and third overall.

Los Angeles was first in yards allowed per game and per play, first in passing yards allowed per game and per play, third in rushing yards allowed per game and per play, and third on third down and 12th in the red zone. It is a unit that pressures the quarterback (second in sack percentage), covers (second in opponent passer rating) and tackles exceptionally well.

The Rams have a superb defensive line, led by perennial All-Pro Aaron Donald, and an excellent secondary, led by cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

Up front, Donald is joined by defensive end Michael Brockers and nose tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day. Donald might be the most dominant defensive player in the NFL. A frontrunner with Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year, Donald had 13.5 sacks, 26 quarterback hits and four forced fumbles during the regular season and two more sacks in the playoff win vs. Seattle. Pro Football Focus credited him with 98 pressures. That’s 27 more than any other interior defensive lineman.

Against Seattle, the Rams spent most of the game in a 3-3-5 alignment with Leonard Floyd, Kenny Young and Troy Reeder as the linebackers. Floyd, a first-round bust with Chicago, has blossomed with the Rams. He had 10.5 sacks in the regular season and two more against Seattle. He rushes almost exclusively from the left side, which means he’ll go up against right tackle Rick Wagner.

Ramsey is a lockdown cornerback. He is joined by Troy Hill and Darious Williams. According to PFF, Ramsey ranked second and Williams ranked third in coverage snaps per reception.

Whether it’s outside or in the slot, Ramsey figures to shadow Davante Adams in a matchup of All-Pros. Williams led the team with four interceptions and 14 passes defensed in the regular season. His 42-yard pick-six on a receiver screen was the big moment in the Rams’ playoff victory.

The safety tandem of John Johnson and Jordan Fuller is highly underrated. Johnson led the team with 105 tackles. Fuller, a rookie, had three interceptions.

When the Rams have the ball

The undercard is the Los Angeles offense vs. the Green Bay defense. The Rams ranked 23rd in scoring with 23.3 points per game. In their final 11 regular-season games, they cracked 30 points just once while behind held to 20 or fewer on five occasions.

While Los Angeles is 11th in total offense (377.0 yard per game), it’s 18th in yards per play (5.54), 17th in rushing per play (4.27) and 19th in passing per play (6.80). It’s fairly mediocre in the situational phases, ranking 12th on third down (43.4 percent conversions) and 19th in the red zone (57.9 percent touchdowns).

Green Bay’s defense ranked 13th in scoring (23.1) but hit its stride down the stretch. In its final five games, it held its opponent to 16 points or less four times. A 40-14 romp over Tennessee in week 16 highlighted the improvement in general and against the run, specifically.

Quarterback Jared Goff helped get the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018 with his 32 touchdowns vs. 12 interceptions but he’s got a combined 42 touchdowns vs. 29 interceptions the past two seasons. Following surgery on a broken thumb, the Rams went with athletic John Wolford in week 17 vs. Arizona and the playoff game against Seattle. When Wolford was knocked out of the Seattle game, it was back to Goff. McVay, for obvious reasons, has no interest in tipping his hand on who will start.

There’s no doubt about who’s running the ball or catching it. Rookie Cam Akers, the fourth running back off the board and selected 10 slots before Green Bay grabbed AJ Dillon, is an every-down back. He led the team with 625 rushing yards in the regular season, then erupted vs. Seattle for 131 rushing yards and one touchdown and two receptions for 45 more yards.

Cooper Kupp (92 receptions, 974 yards, three touchdowns), Robert Woods (90 receptions, 936 yards, six touchdowns) and Josh Reynolds (52 receptions, 618 yards, two touchdowns) form a productive receiver trio, and Tyler Higbee (44 receptions, 521 yards, five touchdowns) and Gerald Everett (41 receptions, 417 yards, one touchdown) provide excellent play at tight end.

The front wall consists of ageless left tackle Andrew Whitworth, left guard David Edwards, center Austin Blythe, right guard Austin Corbett and right tackle Rob Havenstein. Edwards and Havenstein played at Wisconsin. It’s an excellent group. The 39-year-old Whitworth didn’t allow a sack in his nine games this year.

Special teams

This is not a clash of the titans. In fact, these are two of the worst special-teams units in the NFL.

Rams kicker Matt Gay made 14-of-16 field goals and all 16 extra points during the regular season. Johnny Hekker, the all-decade punter of the 2010s, ranked just 24th with a net punting average of 39.2 yards. Nsimba Webster averaged only 21.7 yards per kickoff return and 7.4 yards per punt return. On coverage, the Rams finished 30th in both phases.

Of course, Green Bay’s special teams had a miserable season aside from Mason Crosby’s perfect field-goal kicking. Starting with a blocked punt against Houston in week 7, the Packers have given up eight big plays: a blocked punt (which went forward so not officially a block) at San Francisco, punt-return touchdowns against Jacksonville and Philadelphia, a fumbled kickoff return against Indianapolis, long kickoff returns against Philadelphia and Detroit, and Tavon Austin’s fumbled punt return against Chicago. Green Bay ranked 30th on punt returns and 31st on kickoff returns.