Keys to the Game (Dec. 15)

By: 
Bill Huber
Correspondent

The Green Bay Packers (10-3) host the Chicago Bears (7-6) at noon, Sunday at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. FOX televises the game.

Coaches

Green Bay — Matt LaFleur, first season (10-3). Chicago — Bill Callahan, second season (19-10).

History

Packers lead 97-94-6 in regular season games and are 1-1 in postseason action. In week one at Soldier Field, the Packers won 10-3. Free-agent additions Adrian Amos (end-zone interception) and Preston Smith (fourth-down sack) made key plays on defense to clinch the victory.

When the Packers have the ball

After struggling against Washington’s strong defense, the Packers will face an even bigger challenge against the mighty Chicago defense, which is fourth in points allowed (17.8 per game). Their strength is obvious by the raw numbers but even more apparent on a per-play basis, with Chicago ranking seventh in yards (5.00), third vs. the run (3.74) and sixth vs. the pass (6.18).

Green Bay’s miserable third-down offense won’t have an easy day against Chicago, which is seventh with a 35.1 percent conversion rate.

At least one stalwart will not be available. Inside linebacker Roquan Smith suffered a pectoral injury on Thursday against Dallas and was placed on injured reserve on Monday. He leads the team with 100 tackles — 30 more than anyone else.

Defensive end Akiem Hicks remains on injured reserve with an elbow injury but has been targeting this game for his return.

Up front in Chuck Pagano’s 3-4 scheme, it’s Roy Robertson-Harris and Bilal Nichols as the ends and Eddie Goldman at nose tackle.

Robertson-Harris, an undrafted free agent in 2016, has been a handful against the Packers. He had one sack and two tackles for losses at Chicago earlier this season and one sack and three TFLs at Green Bay last year. Overall this season, he has 2.5 sacks and ranks third on the team with 10 quarterback hits.

The outside linebackers are the indomitable Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd. Mack has 7.5 sacks and five forced fumbles. According to Pro Football Focus, he is sixth among edge rushers with 61 total pressures. He divides his time almost equally between the left and right sides. In round one against Green Bay, his snap count was 31 times on the left (or the offense’s right) and 24 times on the right.

“Their pass rush has always been good, and when you have dominant players who are going to be a force impacting the game on the other side, you have to make sure you have a place to go with the ball,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said.

Veteran Danny Trevathan, who has 70 tackles, will man one spot at inside linebacker and Kevin Pierre-Louis figures to replace Smith. Against Dallas, Pierre-Louis came off the bench and had five tackles and two passes defensed.

Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara are the corners with Buster Skrine in the slot. It’s a quality trio.

Fuller leads the team with three interceptions and 12 passes defensed, and is one of the best in the business. Amukamara has broken up 10 passes and Skrine has five pass breakups and two forced fumbles.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix has capably replaced Amos in the Packers-Bears “swap” of safeties. He has 66 tackles, two interceptions and five passes defensed. Eddie Jackson, who had six interceptions and 15 passes defensed last season but just one pick and four PBUs this year, covers as much ground as any safety in the league.

When the Bears have the ball

Chicago is 26th in scoring (18.7 points per game), 29th in total offense, 30th in rushing offense, 29th in passing offense and 28th on third down.

Still, after stumbling to 4-6 in large part due to that inept offense, the Bears have a pulse in the loaded NFC because quarterback Mitch Trubisky has suddenly started playing like a first-round pick. In back-to-back games against Detroit and Dallas, he’s thrown for 582 yards and six touchdowns with passer ratings of better than 115.

Forcing the ball into Trubisky’s hands worked for Green Bay in Round 1, with a meager 5.07 yards per attempt, one interception and a passer rating of 62.1. Can the Packers do it again or has Trubisky actually turned the corner?

“I’m really proud of him,” Nagy said. “In this game, it can be challenging, it can be tough. There’s a lot of highs and lows, especially at that position, as all these quarterbacks know.”

The biggest change offensively since the opener is the emergence of hard-charging rookie running back David Montgomery. He carried six times for 18 yards against the Packers in week one but has at least 60 rushing yards in four of his last seven games, including 75 yards against Detroit and 86 yards against Dallas the last two games.

Tarik Cohen, who has caught 60 passes but averaged just 3.1 yards per carry, is a bigger threat in the passing game than as a runner. Trubisky is third on the team with 143 rushing yards, 63 of which came against Dallas.

The second big change offensively is at receiver. Second-year player Anthony Miller didn’t catch a pass against Green Bay and had only four receptions in the first four games. The past four weeks, though, he’s caught 24 passes for 313 yards.

Allen Robinson is the top threat with 76 receptions for 898 yards and seven touchdowns. He caught seven balls for 102 yards in the opener. With Trey Burton and Adam Shaheen on injured reserve, Chicago’s tight ends don’t pose much of a threat.

The offensive line consists of left tackle Charles Leno, left guard James Daniels, center Cody Whitehair, right guard Rashaad Coward and right tackle Bobby Massie. It’s a strong outfit. Chicago has given up just five sacks the last three games.

Special teams

Green Bay’s special teams might have turned the corner. Punter JK Scott is out of his funk and Tyler Ervin provided a badly needed spark with four punt returns of 10-plus yards against Washington after the team had minus-8 yards the first 12 games.

“Two good games doesn’t mean you’ve arrived by any stretch. You’ve got to keep doing it each day,” LaFleur said.

It will be a huge challenge against Chicago. Receiver/running back Cordarrelle Patterson is averaging 30.2 yards per kickoff return with a 102-yard touchdown. He’s one of the best in NFL history. Cohen is averaging 9.1 yards on punt returns with a long of 71.

Punter Pat O’Donnell is OK, with an average of 44.8 and a net of 40.6. He generally gives the returner an opportunity. Kicker Eddie Pineiro is 16-of-21 on field goals but appears to have broken out of a slump in which he missed 4-of-7 field-goal attempts and one extra point in a four-game stretch at midseason.