Keys to the Game (at Bears)

By: 
Bill Huber
Correspondent

The Green Bay Packers will travel to face the Chicago Bears at noon on Sunday at Soldier Field in Chicago. FOX will televise the game.

History

In a series that dates to 1921, the Packers lead 104-95-6. That includes a split of two playoff games. They’ve won seven in a row, 12 of the last 13, 16 of the last 18 and 22 of the last 25.

When the Bears beat the Packers 30-10 on Oct. 25, 1992, Chicago had extended its series lead to 80-57-6. Since then, Green Bay is a resounding 46-14.

Coaches

Green Bay — Matt LaFleur, 43-18, fourth season. Chicago — Matt Eberflus, 3-9, first season.

When the Packers have the ball

Will it be Aaron Rodgers starting and trying to retain his ownership over Chicago? Or will Jordan Love be getting his first shot in the century-old rivalry? Whoever it is will be facing a vulnerable defense.

The Bears enter week 13 ranked 28th with 25.4 points allowed per game. Eberflus was hired because of his defensive acumen but it hasn’t shown up. On a per-play basis, the Bears are 29th overall (5.92), 24th against the run (4.68) and 31st against the pass (7.61).

They’re also 31st on third down (48.9% conversions) and 27th in the red zone (65.9% touchdowns). The one trouble spot is takeaways, where the Bears are 10th with 15.

Chicago operates out of a 4-3 alignment. Having traded away two of their stars, linebacker Roquan Smith and pass rusher Robert Quinn, it is a unit that will enter the offseason seeking an infusion of talent.

Up front, Trevis Gipson and Al-Quadin Muhammad are the ends and Justin Jones and Armon Watts are the tackles. Jones and Gipson lead that group with two sacks apiece. Gipson has a team-high eight quarterback hits and Jones has been active with five quarterback hits, eight tackles for losses and four passes defensed.

Former Wisconsin player Jack Sanborn, former Packers player Joe Thomas and Nicholas Morrow are the linebackers, with Sanborn and Morrow being the every-down players.

Morrow has 78 tackles, including a team-high nine for losses. The last three weeks, Sanborn, an undrafted rookie, has games of 12 tackles and two sacks and 14 tackles.

The secondary is where there is talent. Jaylon Johnson and rookie Kyler Gordon have a chance to be a quality cornerback tandem and Eddie Jackson and rookie Jaquan Brisker already have emerged as a top pair at safety. When the Bears go with five defensive backs, it’s Johnson and Kindle Vildor as the corners and Gordon in the slot.

Johnson is an excellent player, so opponents have attacked Gordon. The second-round pick has taken his lumps. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s allowed an 82% catch rate and 615 yards, the second-worst and worst, respectively, in the NFL.

Brisker, also a second-round pick, is fourth on the team with 73 tackles. He leads the team with three sacks and has added one interception. His presence has helped Jackson return to prominence. He was an All-Pro in 2018 (six interceptions, two for touchdowns) and a Pro Bowler in 2019 (two interceptions) but didn’t have any interceptions in 2020 and 2021. This year, he’s got four interceptions, two forced fumbles and 80 tackles.

With Gordon and Brisker in the concussion protocol last week, Jets backup quarterback Mike White threw for 315 yards, three touchdowns and a 149.3 passer rating.

When the Bears have the ball

The injury report will be a big deal this week, and not just because of Aaron Rodgers. Bears quarterback Justin Fields was inactive last week with an injured left shoulder. Last year’s first-round pick hasn’t been great as a passer — 59.6%, 13 touchdowns vs. eight interceptions and an 86.2 rating — but he is an electric runner with team-leading figures of 834 yards, 6.8 average and seven touchdowns. That 6.8 average ranks second in the NFL.

David Montgomery has had to carry the load with Khalil Herbert on injured reserve. Montgomery, who had 1,070 yards in 2020 and 849 yards in 13 games in 2021, has 580 yards (4-yard average) and three touchdowns. The Bears miss the explosive Herbert, who has 653 yards on the strength of a fourth-ranked 6-yard average.

No doubt the Bears will want to run the ball early and often against a Green Bay defense that allowed 363 rushing yards vs. Philadelphia, the third-worst night in franchise history. The Packers couldn’t handle Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts; Fields is even more explosive as a runner.

Receivers Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool and tight end Cole Kmet give Fields (or backup Trevor Siemian) some firepower in the passing game. Mooney leads the team with 40 receptions for 493 yards. Kmet has contributed 29 receptions for 336 yards and a team-high five touchdowns.

Acquired at the trade deadline, Claypool has only seven catches for 83 yards in four games.

Up front, rookie Braxton Jones is the left tackle, Cody Whitehair is the left guard, Sam Mustipher is the center, Teven Jenkins is the right guard and Riley Reiff is the right tackle.

Former Packers lineman Lucas Patrick, who had been starting at center, is on injured reserve (toe). Jones, a fifth-round pick, has really struggled with five sacks and 32 total pressures allowed. The Packers have struggled to mount a pass rush without Rashan Gary, though.

Special teams

In Football Outsiders’ rankings, Chicago is 19th and Green Bay is 29th.

Cairo Santos has solved the Bears’ longtime kicking issues. He is as reliable as they come, having converted 16-of-17 field-goal attempts. He is 4-of-5 from 50-plus yards.

Rookie punter Trenton Gill is 17th in average (47.1) and 23rd in net (40). He has only 11 inside-the-20 punts and has had one kick blocked.

The man he replaced, Green Bay’s Pat O’Donnell, is 26th in average (45), 25th in net (39.9) but sixth with 22 inside-the-20s.

Receiver Dante Pettis is averaging 8.4 yards per punt return and running back Trestan Ebner is averaging 22 yards per kickoff return.

Coming off a big game against Philadelphia, Packers kickoff returner Keisean Nixon will face a Bears coverage unit that is allowing 26.4 yards per return, including a 103-yard touchdown.