Packers Notebook (conference championship)

The rematch

The Green Bay Packers were 4-0 and coming off their bye for their big showdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Oct. 18.

The game was a disaster. Green Bay was demolished 38-10. A 10-0 lead after the first quarter became a 28-10 deficit at halftime. The Packers had nine first downs on their first two possessions but only four the rest of the game. After averaging a glitzy 38 points to start the season, they didn’t take a single snap on the Buccaneers’ side of the field over the final three quarters in never getting close to staging a comeback.

“We knew those guys didn’t deserve to be on the field with us because we’ve got too much talent and fly around to the ball,” Buccaneers linebacker Devin White boasted after the game.

Speaking at about the same time, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers took the loss in relative stride.

“I think we needed kind of a kick in the ass a little bit,” Rodgers said. “There’s a little bit of a wakeup to stop feeling ourselves so much and get back to the things that got us to this position. I think this would be, unfortunately but fortunately, something we can really grow from.”

He added: “This is, I believe, an anomaly, not the beginning of a trend. And we’ve got a chance to prove me right next week.”

Rodgers was right. Behind the top-ranked scoring offense and an improving defense, the Packers rolled to a 13-3 record to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.

At 2:05 p.m. Sunday, the Packers will get a chance to show they more than belong on the same field with the Buccaneers. With a victory in the NFC Championship Game, they will get to their first Super Bowl in a decade.

Of course, what happened three months ago will be irrelevant once the ball is kicked off. No team is more hopeful of that than the Packers. No team is more aware of that than the Buccaneers, who avenged two losses to the New Orleans Saints in the regular season by winning at New Orleans in last weekend’s divisional round.

In week one, Tampa Bay lost at New Orleans 34-23. In week nine, the Buccaneers were crushed at home 38-3. From the Bucs’ perspective, that game was a mirror image to their victory over Green Bay. The Saints led 31-0 at halftime. In the battle at quarterback, Drew Brees threw four touchdown passes and Tom Brady tossed three interceptions.

In Sunday’s rematch in the divisional playoffs, the Buccaneers scored the final 17 points to beat the Saints 30-20. Their defense overwhelmed Brees and Co.

“This is a different football team,” Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians said afterward. “I’ve tried telling everybody, but nobody wants to believe me. This is the way we’re capable of playing defensively. We’ve had some rough spots, at times, but we’ve had some really, really good times, and this is one of the best times.”

The Packers are a different team, too. They’ve won seven consecutive games. The last three games were decisive victories over Tennessee and Chicago, teams that qualified for the playoffs, and the Rams in the playoffs. A Green Bay offense that couldn’t move the ball at all over the final three quarters at Tampa Bay trounced the NFL’s top-ranked defense to the tune of 32 points — they took a knee on first-and-goal from the 9 — and 484 yards.

“You’ve got to give them credit,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of the Bucs. “They were more prepared to play than our group was. I think our team has come a long way from that day, but everything’s just words at this point. You’ve got to go out there and you’ve got to have a great week of preparation and you’ve got to go earn it on the field.”

Quarterback legends

While a trip to the Super Bowl is on the line, the other major story line is the quarterbacks. Rodgers vs. Brady is a legendary matchup for a championship game. Since winning the Super Bowl in 2010, this will be Rodgers’ fourth attempt to get back to the big game. Finally, the title game will be played on Rodgers’ home turf.

“Jordy (Nelson) and I talked about it years ago,” Rodgers said after routing the Rams. “I had a lot of starts in this league without being able to be a part of hosting the NFC Championship. I remember what it felt like in 2007, especially after we watched the Giants beat Dallas. Us and Dallas, we thought, were the two best teams in the NFC that year. Giants beat them and we felt really good about hosting and our chances. The fans were special, the energy was special tonight. There is a home-field advantage.”

While Rodgers continues to chase that elusive second championship ring, Brady’s six Super Bowl rings extend across two hands. This will be his 14th conference championship game. While he was 9-4 in title games with New England, he’s thrown a relatively unimpressive 18 touchdowns vs. 14 interceptions in those games.

This will be their fourth individual matchup, with Rodgers beating the Patriots at home in 2014, losing at the Patriots in 2018 and losing at Tampa Bay in week six. There would have been a rematch in the Super Bowl in 2014 if not for Green Bay’s epic collapse at Seattle.

“He’s obviously done it at the highest of levels for so long,” Rodgers said before the October game. “He’s been an icon at the position. He’s been somebody that we’ve all looked up to for so many years as the standard of excellence. I think there’s a ton of admiration and respect for the way that he’s played the game from so many of us, especially us guys who’ve been in the same era for so many years with him and gotten to compete with him.”

Chilly forecast

The early forecast for Sunday calls for a high of 27. That might have been a big advantage against Brees and the Saints but perhaps not so much against the Buccaneers.

In games with a kickoff temperature of 27 or colder, Brady is a ridiculous 19-3 with 48 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and 11 games with a 100-plus passer rating. In his last cold-weather start, he won at Kansas City 37-31 in overtime in the 2018 AFC Championship Game.

“Just got to have some mental toughness and wear some warm clothes and be ready to go,” Brady said after beating New Orleans. “It’s chilly, man. That’s January football in the Northeast, Midwest. We’ll be prepared.”

Rodgers, on the other hand, is 17-4 since taking over as the starter in 2008 (not including the 2018 finale vs. Detroit, when he was knocked out with a first-quarter concussion). He’s won his last six cold-weather starts with 12 touchdowns vs. zero interceptions.

In four consecutive January home playoff wins, he’s thrown 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions. His 108.3 rating vs. the Rams was the lowest of those games. In the last five seasons of December and January home games, he’s thrown an absurd 30 touchdowns vs. one interception, good for a 110.1 rating.

Trench warfare

In Green Bay’s 4-0 start, it allowed a total of three sacks and averaged 150.8 rushing yards. Against Tampa Bay, it allowed five sacks and couldn’t get the running game going.

Rodgers called that game in general an “anomaly,” and the same has been true of the play by the linemen. What seems like a constantly evolving starting unit has been the unsung hero of the NFL’s best offense. Of that group, the hero has been Billy Turner, who struggled last season at right guard but played well at right tackle and now at left tackle in place of All-Pro David Bakhtiari.

“Billy and really the whole group has been just so instrumental in our ability to get to where we are today,” LaFleur said. “Just asking those guys to play multiple spots, the versatility that they’ve shown and the ability to change in the heat of the battle, whether it’s kicking somebody out at guard or center or whatever we have to do to get the job done. Those guys are a resilient group. They’re a big reason why we are where we are today.”