Keys to the Game (conference championship)

By: 
Bill Huber
Correspondent

The Green Bay Packers (14-3) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5) at 2:05 p.m. Jan. 24 at Lambeau Field. FOX televises the game.

Coaches

Green Bay — Matt LaFleur, second season (26-6 overall, 2-1 in playoffs). Tampa Bay — Bruce Arians, second season with Buccaneers (67-44-1 in regular season, 3-2 in playoffs over career).

History

Green Bay leads 33-22-1, including a 21-7 victory in the 1997 playoffs.

When the Packers have the ball

Green Bay’s top-ranked offense got the best of the Rams’ top-ranked defense in Saturday’s NFC divisional playoff game. The Packers scored 32 points and piled up 484 yards as Aaron Rodgers just missed 300 passing yards, Aaron Jones fell 1 yard shot of 100 rushing yards and Allen Lazard was 4 yards shy of 100 receiving yards.

Tampa Bay’s superb defense was almost as brilliant in a 30-20 victory over New Orleans on Jan. 17. Legendary quarterback Drew Brees was 19-of-34 passing for just 134 yards and a 38.1 passer rating. Receiver Michael Thomas, who set an NFL record for receptions in 2019, was held without a catch.

The Buccaneers finished eighth with 22.2 points allowed per game. In terms of yards per attempt, they were first against the run (3.6), eighth against the pass (6.39) and sixth overall (5.12). A defense that recorded five sacks against Green Bay wound up seventh in sack percentage.

Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles operates out of a 3-4 scheme. Ndamukong Suh, who turned 34 a couple weeks ago, remains a force on the line. He had six sacks. He’ll be joined by William Gholston and Vita Vea.

Gholston led the team with 20 quarterback hits. The 347-pound Vea missed the final 11 regular-season games with a broken ankle but is off injured reserve and should be back in the lineup. He’s more than just a big run-stopper, with his brute force making him a quality pass rusher.

Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett are the outside linebackers. Last year, Barrett led the NFL with 19.5 sacks and 37 quarterback hits and tied for third with six forced fumbles. This year, Barrett fell to eight sacks and 16 quarterback hits but was first with 76 pressures. Pierre-Paul had 9.5 sacks and four forced fumbles to earn Pro Bowl honors. Left tackle Billy Turner will be responsible for Pierre-Paul while right tackle Rick Wagner will have to deal with Barrett.

The inside linebacker tandem of Devin White and Lavonte David might be the best in the NFL. White, especially, is a game wrecker. A top pick in 2019, White had 140 tackles, nine sacks and 15 tackles for losses, then added 11 tackles and one interception against the Saints. David had 117 tackles, 12 tackles for losses, one interception, six passes defensed and three forced fumbles. They have an unrivaled combination of speed and instincts.

Carlton Davis is the top cornerback. He led the team with four interceptions, finished second in the NFL with 18 passes defensed and was the man most responsible for shutting out Thomas. Sean Murphy-Bunting had an interception against the Saints and Jamel Dean had the pick-six that turned the tide against Green Bay in week six.

At safety, it’s the understated tandem of Jordan Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield. A rookie, Winfield had 91 tackles and three sacks. The hard-hitting Whitehead posted an impressive nine tackles for losses.

When the Buccaneers have the ball

With a star-studded group of skill players, the Buccaneers finished third with 30.8 points per game. They’ve scored 30-plus points in each of their last five games.

While New England faltered without Tom Brady, Brady thrived without his former coach, Bill Belichick. Brady finished second in completions, attempts and touchdowns, was third in yards and ninth in passer rating.

The Bucs have a high-quality running back tandem with Ronald Jones and burly Leonard Fournette. Jones rushed for 978 yards and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. Of his seven touchdowns, one was a 98-yarder. He carried 23 times for 113 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay. With Jones nursing an injured quad, Fournette — a 1,000-yard rusher for Jacksonville in 2017 and 2019 and underrated receiver — has helped pick up the slack. Against the Saints, they combined for 125 yards on 30 attempts.

The receiver corps might be the best in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. The 6-foot-5 Evans has played seven seasons. He’s topped 1,000 yards in each season. This year, he caught 70 passes for 1,006 yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns. Godwin caught 65 passes for 840 yards and seven touchdowns and Brown, a four-time All-Pro while with Pittsburgh, caught 45 passes for 483 yards and four touchdowns in eight games.

At tight end, Rob Gronkowski came out of retirement to join Brady in Tampa Bay. He caught 45 passes for 523 yards and seven touchdowns and has always been an imposing blocker. Cameron Brate added 28 receptions for 282 yards.

The offensive line is formed by left tackle Donovan Smith, left guard Ali Marpet, center Ryan Jensen, right guard Aaron Stinnie and rookie right tackle Tristan Wirfs.

Wirfs allowed only one sack. Stinnie will make his second career start in place of Alex Cappa, who was placed on injured reserve last week. Marpet was the best pass-protecting guard in the league with zero sacks and 10 pressures allowed, according to Pro Football Focus.

Special teams

In Rick Gosselin’s 42nd-annual special teams rankings, Tampa Bay finished 22nd and Green Bay 29th.

Throughout the season, kickoff coverage was the Buccaneers’ biggest shortcoming, as they ranked last with a return average allowed of 33.6 yards. Against the Saints, the punt coverage was the problem, with one long return and another overturned by penalty. Can Green Bay take advantage after ranking 30th in punt-return average and 31st in kickoff-return average?

With Jaydon Mickens handling returns, Tampa Bay ranked 19th on kickoff returns and 24th on punt returns.

For the punters, Green Bay’s JK Scott ranked 28th with a 37-yard net average and Tampa Bay’s Bradley Pinion ranked 17th with a 40.2 net. The strength of both units is the kickers. Green Bay’s Mason Crosby didn’t miss a field goal all season, while Tampa Bay’s Ryan Succop converted 27-of-30 attempts.